I read this thread on Reddit about an Indian guy wanting to make money playing the Crash game on Stake – an Australian-Curaçaoan online casino operated by Medium Rare NV (Wikipedia); but is gaining tremendous traction in India over the past few years.
First I tried my best to not to laugh out loud. But then, settled for a smile.
It’s like swimming in the ocean and expecting to outswim and outsmart hungry sharks, who have spotted you for their dinner. You can’t. Well, I hope you could, but the probability of that happening is microscopic.
Here’s what he said:
So I joined stake a month ago, where I was gambling for the first time and I had no idea how it works. After a month, means right now, I’ve discovered a strategie where I put 500₹ as bet amount and 1.20 as cashout. My goal is to make 100₹ daily and never looking back after making 100₹ that day.
However, can I be robbed after doing this strategy for a while by Stake? Like, does this game contain advantages and stuff? And is it fully depending on randomness? Is this rigged? Should I continue? I have so many questions but as of now I’m in a loss of 1,200₹ and I don’t know whether I should play this game again and earn that 1,200₹ back and never come back to Stake.
Please answer my questions and giving me some additional information about gambling on Stake would be lovely.
I decided to turn his thread into a number of questions, so that any layman reading it might be to apprehend it.
1. Can Stake “rob” you after using this strategy for a while?
Not in the way a masked guy with a crowbar would. But the house always has the edge. I don’t think Stake would deliberately do that. I don’t believe the “robbing in daylight” element exists. But, all gambling platforms have a built-in house edge, that can’t be beaten, in the long run. Stake will end up making a profit for sure, whether he uses this strategy or some other holy grail.
2. Does Stake have advantages built into the game?
Of course. It’s not just Crash, but every game on their platform will ensure moolah for them. Even if this strategy were to work (which it wouldn’t because it’s nonsense mostly); the odds are set in a way, that he’ll likely lose money over a few hundred bets. Every game on Stake is designed to fill their pockets faster than a toddler stuffing cake in their mouth.
3. Is Stake fully based on randomness?
I can’t challenge them on this – can’t go throwing accusations like a monkey with a handful of bananas. Can’t slander them on hearsay, but I don’t believe it’s “not random.” Most of their games, including Crash are provided by third-party vendors. Stake has little control over them to have them manipulated in their favor.
4. Is the game rigged?
No, Crash is not tampered in a sense that it would go against him – it’s not a movie villain twirling its mustache. But, it will suck out all the wins, eventually; provided he keeps playing either with his past wins or fresh deposits. The randomness will take away anything he’s made over time. The house edge is like a nemesis who always has the last laugh.
I didn’t take into account, yet that this nice Indian man would end up losing all his deposit. He should instead be thinking of quitting while he can. And, not let gambling be the source of his potential “non-existent” future income.
A few people in the thread had the right idea:
Someone with this little understanding of maths should not gamble. You will lose all your money.
It’s not just this. I think this guy is pretty young. I guessed it with the way he wrote his post. I mean he should really be looking for a job, instead of trying to find an alpha in a game that’s rigorously crafted to empty a player’s deposit balance. I wouldn’t want him to end up like me, losing $11k playing slots and other casino games at Wild Casino; I wrote about the whole ordeal here.
But then, it’s not like he’s going to listen. Some lessons in life only sink in after the balance hits zero.
Just don’t gamble. Long run you lost as odds always there take you money.
If you want make online go into crypto trading. Avoid meme trading. Look up QuickFingerLuc strategy.
That’s even worst advice. People lose even bigger money in crypto trading. According to Kraken, in 2022, the average crypto investor incurred net realized losses of approximately $7,102. A report by the Bank for International Settlements indicates that a majority of retail investors across various economies have experienced losses on their Bitcoin holdings.
You see out of the frying pan, into the fire. I don’t think Redditors should be providing financial advice to anyone. But, Google seems to love them. So, I can’t do much.
So yeah… if gambling is a bad idea, turning to crypto as a “safer” alternative is like switching from cigarettes to setting your lungs on fire.
Anyways here are a few more interesting responses this thread got:
Quit gambling now. You’re already chasing losses. Gambling isn’t an effective way to make money. It’s purely entertainment. You are guaranteed to lose in the long run.
The situation is similar in betting. There, each bet includes the margin of the bookmaker.
For example, there is a tennis match between two tennis players of approximately equal strength. The bookmaker gives about 50% for each of them to win. But the odds are 1.85 for the first and the second to win.
That is, you bet $100 on the first tennis player, and I bet the same $100 on the second. Let your tennis player win. You win $185, I lose $100, and $15 is the casino’s profit.
The next time, a similar situation will occur, but I will win, and the bookmaker will also earn $15 from our bet. He doesn’t care who won the bet. They get their margin.
In the long run, after hundreds of similar bets, both you and I will lose money. The bookmaker will make money on us.
This is how it works.
Okay, let’s say you are a professional in the field of sports betting, sports analytics, and so on, and you win at a distance. At some point, the bookmaker may start to lower the odds specifically for you, or limit the maximum bet amount. They have different methods of working with consistently winning players.
I chose the ones that discourage him gamble on Crash games.
But, I’m not going to be biased either. There are also a few good points in his strategy:
- He wants to stop for the day, anytime he hits ₹100 profit. This shows discipline, but in reality gamblers say one thing but do another. It’s like going to a buffet and swearing you’ll only have one plate.
- His 1.20x risk factor is OK. I guess it avoids large disasters when compared to high multipliers. It’s still like dodging raindrops in a hurricane – you’ll get soaked eventually.
- His bankroll management approach would force him to keep small bet sizes and that would let him bet for a longer period before running out of funds. But let’s not pretend that “losing slowly” is the same as winning. It’s just death by a thousand bets.
But, despite the goodies, there are some major flaws in his strategy, which he’s conveniently overlooked:
- Even with a 1.20x, that might seem safe, he’ll eventually lose most of his previous winnings once his streak breaks down. He’s got a mathematical disadvantage here; like playing chess against a supercomputer while blindfolded.
- Chasing his ₹1,200 loss would make him end up losing his entire deposit or a lot of money; he’ll graduate from “small loss” to why is my bank account crying?… Right now, this is a menial amount, and I hope he discontinues.
- And even if he did win a bunch, his overconfidence in his strategy would ultimately lead him to lose his deposit. There isn’t any method that works consistently in gambling. Stake will remind him who’s boss.
I guess how he proceeds is totally up to him. If I were him, I’d quit, get a real job, and find hobbies that don’t involve betting on a virtual rocket ship.
But then, it’s always easier said than done – kind of like telling yourself you’ll just check Instagram for a minute and suddenly it’s three hours later.